With his frequent trips to the early primary states and recent staff changes, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tex., is looking increasingly like somebody intending to run for president in 2016 — and it’s easy to see why he would be tempted to do so.

The next Republican race is going to be wide open, with no clear frontrunner, and the limited polling that exists on 2016 suggests Cruz would be starting out right in the mix with other candidates. If he declines to run and a Republican goes on to win the presidency, the earliest he’d be able to try would likely be in 2024 — and by that point, he could have to contend with whoever served as vice president for eight years.