If the Federal Reserve needed a sign to reject President Trump’s demands for lower interest rates, the June jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered it.
Total nonfarm employment increased by a staggering 224,000 jobs in June, rebounding from a lackluster May jobs report that had economists wondering whether our longest bull market in human history was sputtering to an end. The June jobs report ought to put such fears to bed, as the nearly quarter-million jobs created in June surpassed the expert estimates, ranging in the 160,000 to 165,500 range, and then some.
Consider, the jobs report comes just one day after the Fourth of July and two after the stock market closed at record highs. Sure, the economy is well overdue for a recession and from student loans to leveraged loans, the economy may be pricing in a number of bubbles on the verge of bursting. But the job market, stock market, and economic growth continue to thrive. And this jobs report — more than correcting May’s meager 72,000 jobs created, which the BLS noted was 3,000 jobs fewer in reality than in their initial estimate — furthers the case that the Fed ought not to slash our already historically low interest rates.
With wages continuing to grow at a 3.1% rate annually, the labor market looks sound, especially given the 17,000 manufacturing jobs created. The greatest jobs gains came in the professional sector, at 51,000 jobs created, and healthcare, at 35,000 jobs created. Employment and labor force participation increased mostly for high school graduates and nongraduates. Unemployment increased ever so slightly from the lowest level in half a century, 3.6%, to 3.7%. Amid a slight decline in the seasonally adjusted black labor force participation rate, the black unemployment rate fell again to 6.0%, the lowest in recorded history, with black men facing just a 5.8% unemployment rate.
The workweek remained unchanged and June’s inflation rate fell from 2.1% in May to 1.9%, meaning that workers shorted by the slow recovery of the Great Recession are continuing to see real wage growth.
From an investor’s perspective, the jobs report would have been as much a win had it demonstrated weak employment growth. That would have increased the odds the Fed would slash interest rates.
But if you’re thinking about the long-term health of the whole economy, this jobs report, and thus stable rates, is better than what Wall Street might have hoped for. When the inevitable recession arrives, lower interest would put the Fed in the unprecedented position of having negligible ability to loosen the money supply. So it benefits Americans tomorrow for the Fed to maintain interest rates today.
Although naysayers and monetary doves may point towards wage growth slowing from earlier this year and unemployment ticking up by a 0.1 percentage point, the June jobs report ought to inspire some confidence in the economy on two fronts. First, slowing wage growth may indicate that the economy isn’t overheated, and thus, our real economic growth continues apace. And second, our unemployment rate likely increased because our historically low labor force participation rate ticked up from 62.8% to 62.9%, meaning that more Americans are looking for jobs rather than remaining on the sidelines of our labor market.
This jobs report likely means that the Fed won’t immediately cut interest rates, nor should they. Our economy continues to beat the historical odds of a recession, but when the day comes that it crashes, the Fed would be wise to retain its capacity to cushion the blow.
