Going into Election Day, the race is as follows: The most straight-forward conclusion to be drawn from the publicly available polling data is that Joe Biden will be elected president by a solid margin. Because pollsters and pundits were wrong in 2016 and polls could be understating President Trump’s support, most prognosticators are more cautious about predicting a Biden win than they were in predicting a Clinton wipeout four years ago.

But as the final votes come in, there’s one thing I keep coming back to: All Biden has to do to win the presidency is to do a smidgen better than Clinton did.