A post-Roe abortion political 'revolution' is unlikely

The Supreme Court, as this is being written, is hearing oral arguments in the case of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, challenging Mississippi’s law banning, with a few exceptions, abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. There’s a powerful argument that the court cannot logically uphold this statute, which is less restrictive than most other nations’ abortion laws, without overturning Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case that overturned all 50 states’ abortion laws.

What is the likely political effect of such a decision? Democrats backing abortion rights predict a “revolution” of outraged voters ousting pro-life Republicans in elections for state legislatures and Congress. At least some Republicans are nervous about such a backlash.