If (and it’s a big if) President Emmanuel Macron is serious about leading an international effort to support Lebanon’s political reform, he should find U.S. support.
Visiting Beirut on Thursday, Macron sought to comfort a people who have just suffered a great loss. Tuesday’s explosion of an ammonium nitrate storage facility killed nearly 150 people, injuring thousands more. Situating himself in the middle of an emotional crowd (a favorite Macron maneuver, albeit not one his security detail particularly appreciates), the president pledged, “I want to organize European cooperation, and more broadly international cooperation.” As reported by Le Monde, Macron pledged to persuade Lebanese politicians “to carry out reforms … to change the system, to stop the division of Lebanon, to fight against corruption.”
With those words, Macron cuts to the heart of Lebanon’s long-running crisis. Tuesday’s explosion did not begin but rather only expedited Lebanon’s impending collapse into a second civil war. The last few months have seen Lebanon’s economy implode due to long-term artificial currency manipulation and the collapse of Syrian banking transactions. But France has a special opportunity to be the face behind any reform effort.
A former French mandate after World War II, Lebanon built its 1943 independence declaration on the French negotiation of a multisectarian “national pact.” That pact requires the president to be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister to be a Sunni Muslim, and the parliamentary speaker to be a Shiite Muslim.
For a time, this agreement provided relative stability. Today, it is driving the chaos that threatens to send Lebanon into another full-blown civil war. Today, the assurance of access to power means that each of Lebanon’s three most powerful sectarian voting blocs can use the system as a private piggy bank. With insider deals and extraordinary corruption, politicians such as Speaker Nabih Berri have been able to enrich themselves and block any movement towards serious reform.
What Lebanon needs, and what Macron will push for if he’s serious about reform, is a political restructuring that situates power in the hands of technocrats and a truly accountable parliament. Of course, such a seismic shift would pose a major threat to those who find value in the current system — which is why previous reform efforts have failed.
Hezbollah has the most to lose. Using its militia force to hold a veto over government decisions, the Iranian-backed Shiite paramilitary organization is a master at manipulating the cozy political class to extend and extract patronage in its favor. But amid the growing economic crisis, Hezbollah’s refusal to accept reform has earned it increasing ire, and increasingly, people are speaking out.
It has gotten bad enough that, hoping to distract from these woes and rally Lebanese people around the flag, Hezbollah is now escalating attacks on Israel. Unchecked, Lebanon’s situation will quickly get a lot worse.
If Macron is serious about confronting this political rot, he deserves wholehearted U.S. and international support. The only way to reform Lebanon is to end its sectarian spoils system. That means real action to counter corruption, an end to Hezbollah’s weapon-wielded veto over power, and an assurance that top jobs are filled by professionals rather than party hacks. Offering financial aid and diplomatic support, France is in a better position than anyone else to broker that reform.
