How the US can thread the deterrence-escalation needle on Iran

Published January 30, 2024 3:47pm ET



President Joe Biden is considering how to respond to an Iranian-orchestrated attack last Sunday on a U.S. military outpost in northeastern Jordan. That attack killed three Americans and wounded dozens more, some very seriously. It showed that previous U.S. efforts to deter Iran from using its Iraqi and Syrian proxy militias to carry out attacks have been unsuccessful.

Iran disingenuously assures us it had nothing to do with Sunday’s attack. The reality is that the militia responsible has deep, subordinated ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This drone attack showed an unusually significant degree of sophistication, further evincing Iranian malfeasance. The United States must ensure that any retaliation alters Iran’s strategic calculus rather than simply the calculus of one or more of the militias it employs.

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