Is 2024’s presidential battleground bigger than we think? So focused on the past, we have been overlooking the present’s obvious. Former President Donald Trump’s polling numbers indicate his support is not just deeper but regionally broader than expected. If this is true, it has major November implications.

The 2016 and 2020 elections pivoted on five states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump won them all, and the presidency’s determining electoral vote was 306 to 232. In 2020, Biden won them all, and the electoral vote was 306 to 232. Throw in 2020’s additional close states of Nevada (which Biden won) and North Carolina (which Trump won), and you get the seven states that are being focused on as 2024’s battleground.