POLITE VS. PASSIONATE: THE HALEY-TRUMP INTENSITY GAP. SUMMERVILLE, South Carolina — Nikki Haley has two big problems as the South Carolina primary approaches. The first is that not enough Republicans support her. A new CBS News poll of South Carolina finds that former President Donald Trump leads Haley by 50 points, 74% to 24%, among self-identified Republicans in the state. A recent Washington Post-Monmouth University poll found Trump led Haley by 60 points, 77% to 17%, among respondents who called themselves strong Republicans and by 26 points, 60% to 34%, among those who called themselves soft Republicans or just leaned toward being a Republican. Even though Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican primary, the fact is, the winner will overwhelmingly need Republican votes, and Haley doesn’t appear to have nearly enough GOP support to win.

Haley’s other big problem is that even among those Republicans who support her, that support is less intense than support for Trump. When the Washington Post-Monmouth pollsters asked whether respondents would feel “enthusiastic,” “satisfied,” “dissatisfied,” or “upset” if Trump became the Republican nominee, 65% of Trump supporters said they would be enthusiastic, and 33% said they would be satisfied. When Haley supporters were asked how they would feel if she became the GOP nominee, 51% said they would be enthusiastic, while 44% said they would be satisfied. Among Trump supporters, there is an added margin of intensity that Haley just doesn’t have.