Veteran GOP operative Jim Ellis points to the second poll so far this cycle showing Flake in big trouble — not of losing to a Democrat, but of losing his primary. Neither poll is particularly impressive in its pedigree, but the idea that Flake is in trouble is by no means far-fetched.

The first poll, by Remington Research in November, had shown Flake with a 19-point net-negative approval rating among likely Republican voters, and that he trailed Republican state Treasurer Jeff DeWitt, 42 to 33 percent in a head-to-head.