THE ‘BIDEN BUMP’ THAT DIDN’T LAST LONG. “The election is clearly changing now, moving towards Biden,” the influential Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg declared on March 26. “The Biden bump is real.” For Republicans, Rosenberg is someone worth listening to. He was right about the nonexistent “red wave” that many in the GOP expected back in 2022. When he said the election was moving, it was worth noting.

Now, though, the situation is a little more complicated. Ever since President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address on March 7, the one in which he appeared to shout much of the time to prove his vigor, Democrats have been hoping for a Biden surge. A lot of that was just wish-casting. It simply did not make sense to many Democrats that former President Donald Trump could be under four indictments, and starting trial in one case, and still be leading Biden. It just seemed too crazy to accept. But it was true.