President Obama’s re-election has triggered panic in some GOP circles. Obama was able to win not just once, when Americans were reacting against the Bush era, but a second time, with a weak economy and a vulnerable record. America, the alarmists say, has fundamentally shifted so much that Republicans can no longer win national elections. This thesis merits serious consideration. Especially relevant is the fact that Mitt Romney’s dismal performance among the growing Hispanic demographic made the race essentially unwinnable.

That having been said, Republicans’ demise may not be at hand just yet. In the short and medium-term, it is worth asking how much of this victory can be chalked up to Obama’s personal appeal and status as a historical figure, as opposed to fundamental shifts in the American electorate. The key question is whether future Democratic candidates will be able to command the type of margins Obama enjoyed among young voters and African-Americans. Although Republicans face long-term challenges with voter demographics, Romney’s problem in this election may not have been primarily structural.