If past elections are any indication, former President Donald Trump will outperform his polling numbers, and if that is the case, he could be headed toward a landslide victory in the Electoral College.

On Election Day in 2016, Trump was considered a slight favorite to win the state of Iowa. But a week before the election, the Des Moines Register published what was essentially an outlier poll showing Trump winning the state by 7 percentage points against then-Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton. The two other polls that were released that week showed Trump winning by 3 points and Clinton winning by 1. On election night, Trump won Iowa by 9 points, a shocking result for a state that had backed former President Barack Obama twice.

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