JD Vance probably doesn't improve Trump election odds much, but he won't hurt them either

After weeks of de facto auditions on cable news and test runs at campaign rallies around the country, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) has emerged the victor of former President Donald Trump‘s 2024 vice presidential pick.

It is true that Vance, 39, who has barely a year and a half in Congress under his belt, doesn’t expand the former president’s electoral map much, and the more limited-government-minded wing of the party has plenty of salient policy disagreements with the Yale Law grad-cum-venture capitalist. But Vance probably will not harm Trump’s electoral prospects, and his raw intelligence and charisma render him a populist with a much broader appeal than some of his fellow travelers.