Vice President Kamala Harris’s pick of Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), the two-term governor of Minnesota, is a clear sign that this election cycle is going to be a get-out-the-base election rather than a coalition-building effort Democrats could have pursued if Harris had chosen Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) as her running mate.

Mike Mikus, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist, said this race will look very similar to the election cycle we saw in 2012 when former President Barack Obama won reelection. In 2008, Obama ran an aspirational race with a message of “Hope and Change” that attracted a sizable amount of working-class “New Deal Democrats” to his coalition. In 2012, he shed those voters in favor of delivering a new base of Democrats called the ascendant coalition that had a heavy focus on minorities, suburban college-educated women, and young people.