Let’s cut to the chase: Vice President Kamala Harris now looks slightly more likely than not to be the next president of the United States.

To be sure, this race is so close that only a fool would express major confidence in any prediction. In each of eight states (including New Hampshire, along with the seven other states regularly assessed as toss-ups), factors as random as bad weather, traffic jams, or late-breaking local news could provide the difference between victory or defeat for Harris or for former President Donald Trump. Still, a number of factors taken together seem, to this experienced observer, to favor Harris.