The brewing popular revolution in Georgia and the probable fall of the Assad regime in Syria demonstrate that Russia is losing its few allies and proxies. In both cases, Moscow has failed to ensure that the current regimes will survive despite years of military and propaganda assistance. And the future looks even bleaker, as Russia itself stands on the verge of an economic meltdown.

Moscow projects its influence in two main ways: military intervention and political corruption. Syria has been an example of the former, as the Kremlin has militarily propped up the regime of President Bashar Assad since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011 and operates two major military bases, the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase. Syria provides Russia with a crucial foothold in the Middle East from which its forces have access to the Mediterranean Sea and can use the country as a launching pad for operations in Africa. Without Syria, Moscow’s close ally Iran will also be weakened and its regional terrorist network disrupted.