President Trump threw a wrench into the Afghan peace process when, last October, he announced his desire to bring U.S. troops home from Afghanistan by Christmas. That tweet upended a timeline negotiated over months and enshrined in the Feb. 29, 2020, peace deal with the Taliban. Trump’s subsequent shake-up in the Pentagon leadership, seemingly motivated by his frustration that Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and top generals were not accelerating U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan underscores both Trump’s rejection of the decadeslong logic of U.S. force projection and his desire to bring U.S. forces home before the end of his presidency.

While Trump’s moves have thrown Afghanistan into turmoil, it is not likely U.S. forces will completely abandon the country before inauguration day. Acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller said that current Pentagon plans envision reducing U.S. forces in Afghanistan by nearly half, to 2,500 men by Jan. 15.