The Iranian government is worried. With the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal set to expire, Tehran believed it would be home free under a Kamala Harris presidency. Instead, it has President Donald Trump, whose legacy includes not only “maximum pressure” but also the assassination of Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani.

Iranian leaders also gambled on Europe’s willingness to allow commercial interests to trump security. In December, however, Britain, France, and Germany signaled support to snap back the sanctions that existed before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The European countries’ move came after an International Atomic Energy Agency decision in November to censure the Islamic Republic for lack of cooperation.