AN ALARMINGLY NARROW HOUSE MAJORITY. It’s a truism that it is extremely difficult to govern with a tiny majority in the House of Representatives. When there are no vacancies, there are 435 members; if everybody shows up, it takes a bare majority, 218 votes, to pass a bill. In practical terms, a majority party needs well over 218 seats to ensure it can win party-line votes. There will always be members who don’t show up or take the other side, and the majority needs enough to win the vote even while losing a few on its own side.

Looking at the House in the last 20 years, the majority party had 233 seats in the Congress beginning in 2005; 233 in the next Congress; 257 beginning in 2009; 242 in the Congress after that; then 234 in the next; 247 in the next; 241 in the next; and 235 in the House beginning in 2019.