ANOTHER LOOK AT THE GOP’S 2026 CHANCES. Monday’s newsletter — “With Trump approval ticking down, midterm elections are still a gloomy picture for GOP” — was pretty pessimistic about Republicans’ chances of holding the House this November. Those chances do, in fact, look terrible. The numbers — President Donald Trump’s job approval, generic ballot polling, historical precedents, the issues — are what they are. But there might be other factors that, when added to the mix, could improve the picture for the GOP.
I asked former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who masterminded the most spectacular midterm of all — the 1994 Republican revolution — whether things are as bad as they can seem. “I think so much of the current thinking is focused on the present and forgets that the election is still months away,” Gingrich told me. “If the election were now, we would clearly lose the House and possibly lose the Senate. My hunch (with no insider knowledge) is that Trump believes he has until July 4 to do what he thinks is necessary and then shift into a campaign mode for four months.”
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Once in campaign mode, Gingrich continued, Trump has to address gasoline prices. In an essay last week, Gingrich wrote, “I know that President Trump and his entire team know that by August gasoline prices must be coming down, and the American people must have a sense that affordability is being addressed by the Republicans. If gasoline prices remain as high as they are (or higher), no strategy will avoid a Republican defeat — and no amount of redrawing congressional districts will be able to overcome the wave of anger that will have built by Labor Day.”
In our conversation, Gingrich also said that Trump “has to reach some stability versus Iran.” There is a possibility, Gingrich added, that if Trump focuses on the danger posed by the Iranian nuclear program, he could make the issue work for Republicans. On the other hand, there is a possibility that Trump won’t be able to do that. That is probably why reaching a point of “stability” is a reasonable goal for the president now.
But the important thing to remember is that whatever happens in Iran, it has to result in dramatically falling gas prices. Gingrich says he is optimistic that Trump can do these things, but the fact is, GOP midterm election hopes hinge on falling fuel prices and progress on affordability. Whatever else Republicans do — Gingrich advocates a policy agenda to show Americans that the GOP is trying to make their lives better, plus a negative campaign to show that Democrats are doing just the opposite, and are crazy, to boot — Republicans have to bring down prices.
If they do, Republicans might be helped by the fact that, while voters have a pretty negative opinion of Republicans, they have a slightly more negative opinion of Democrats. Looking at the RealClearPolitics averages of polling questions on party favorability, 38.3% of those surveyed said they have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, while 36.7% said they have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party. The GOP’s unfavorability is 55.4%, while the Democrats’ is 55.5%. So there is no Democratic edge at all on favorability.
Still, what about the possibility that the issues will line up perfectly for Democrats? What about those fears that the election will be a blowout, that Democrats will do something like they did in 2018, during Trump’s first midterm cycle, when they picked up 41 seats? If that happens, it’s obviously a total disaster for Republicans. But there are arguments that such big pickups, like 2018 and like the 63-seat GOP pickup in 2010, are no longer likely, and maybe no longer possible.
Blowout elections depend on the existence of a large number of truly competitive House districts — districts which could go either Republican or Democrat, depending on the political situation of the moment. But the number of truly competitive districts is going down. In their place are more and more solid R and solid D districts that will stay in the party column regardless of what’s happening in politics. That means there won’t likely be any more 40- or 60-seat net gains and losses in midterm elections.
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The change came about after decades of redistricting, in which both Democrats and Republicans tailored an increasing number of House seats to favor themselves. According to a recent Politico analysis, there were 143 competitive seats nationwide before redistricting in 2011. By 2021, there were 79, and there are fewer still now.
So maybe there won’t be a huge 2018-style turnover this time around. But remember two things. First, the Republicans’ current margin of control is so small that a pickup of five seats would give Democrats control. And second, remember what Gingrich said: If gas prices don’t come down, “no amount of redrawing congressional districts will be able to overcome the wave of anger that will have built by Labor Day.” Trump and his party need things to go their way this summer to have a chance in the fall.
