What Russia's defeat in Ukraine would mean for the world

September is a crucial month. If Ukraine’s counteroffensive along the southern front is successful, then Moscow will stand on the verge of a historic defeat — even, that is, if Russian forces temporarily hold on to Crimea and the Donbas. Military failure despite six months of war will have global reverberations by damaging Russia’s reputation and influence.

The Ukrainian army plans to push Russian forces out of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. If successful, the momentum will shift toward other occupied territories. While Kyiv continues to rearm with modern NATO weaponry, Russia is experiencing severe problems in replenishing its depleted ranks and replacing thousands of pieces of destroyed equipment.