Shortly after President Donald Trump started his second term, his new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, promised, “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100,000 barrels a day of oil exports.” Fulfilling that commitment appears far off.

In February, Iran exported 1.7 million barrels per day, mostly to China; the following month, Iran’s oil exports declined slightly but were still 15 times Bessent’s goal. Simply put, absent an effective strategy to counter China’s purchase of Iranian oil, it will be difficult to make sanctions against Iran effective.