Amid a spate of new reports painting President Trump in a highly unflattering light, the question keeps gnawing at some of us: If Trump withdrew from his reelection race, how would another Republican running in his place be polling?

My sense, based on more than four decades of close attention to presidential politics, is that Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, or Kristi Noem would be running neck and neck with Joe Biden rather than an average of about 8 points behind.