Before and after the United States began its current action against Iran, commentators claimed that the operation would overstretch the U.S. military. They raised concerns about weakening deterrence and readiness against China. But deterrence rests on credibility. If the U.S. lacks the munitions required to sustain even a lower-grade conflict, its warnings carry less weight. This is why the complaints about depleted ammunition stocks miss the larger point. The problem is not that the U.S. is burning through munitions. It’s that the U.S. defense investments have not reflected changed geopolitical realities.

Five weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. Navy has fired over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Prior to the conflict, annual Tomahawk production stood at roughly 90 units, and the fiscal 2026 defense budget funded the purchase of 57. The military expended approximately 15 years of Tomahawk procurement in 30 days. According to Payne Institute estimates, over 6,000 offensive and defensive munitions were used in the first 16 days alone, representing nearly half the total inventory. Patriot batteries defending Gulf states fired 943 interceptors in the first four days, equivalent to 18 months of factory output. THAAD interceptor stocks have been drawn down by an estimated third.