Republicans are headed for a rough reckoning next month. Persistent inflation, record fuel prices, and widespread disapproval of the war with Iran have soured the outlook for the GOP. According to the latest Wall Street Journal poll, President Donald Trump’s 37% approval rating is the lowest for any president since 1990.

That comparison rang alarm bells with me. I was the National Republican Congressional Committee’s communications director in 1990, responsible for media and television advertising strategy in President George H.W. Bush’s first midterm elections. We started the year optimistic about chipping away at the Democratic majority in the House. Early that year, our polling revealed a budding anti-tax, anti-incumbent mood. It was driven by a recession, a financial crisis in the savings-and-loan industry, and perceptions of corruption in the Democratic leadership.