From someone whose title is senior political analyst you may be expecting a forecast of who will win the Iowa caucuses next Monday night. Will Donald Trump voters turn out in enough numbers to give him the narrow win over Ted Cruz that polls indicate he has now? Will Hillary Clinton withstand the challenge of and excitement generated by Bernie Sanders?

But the answers to these questions are, in historical perspective, trivial. By Tuesday at noon, anyone interested will know the answers, and it will be time to forecast the results of the New Hampshire primary seven days later.