The Westminster rumor mill is on fire with the expectation that British Prime Minister Theresa May faces an imminent vote on the floor of Parliament to oust her. I think that such a leadership vote is coming, but I also believe May will survive it.
First off, some context. The rumors on Tuesday follow the prime minister’s cancellation on Monday of a planned parliamentary vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement with the European Union. That decision sparked great dismay across Parliament. The BBC’s chief political reporter notes that the leader of the “1922 Committee,” which governs Conservative leadership contests, is now believed to have received letters from 48 — or 15 percent — of Conservative members of Parliament stating their lack of confidence in May. If this is correct, May is likely to face a confidence vote by Friday, originating from within her own Conservative party.
