Donald Trump argues that recent trade deals and trade deficits have been bad for American workers, and that he could do better. Some have argued that his proposals would start a trade war. But if he comes up with the right BATNA (
Best
Alternative
To a
Negotiated
Agreement), he could move trade toward balance without a trade war.

In August 1971 President Nixon used a 10 percent across-the-board tariff as his BATNA in order to force the successful negotiations which brought U.S. trade into balance by 1973. But U.S. trade deficits were small in Nixon’s day and huge today. Trump will need a much more powerful BATNA than the across-the-board tariff used by Nixon.