West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s rejection of the Build Back Better spending bill was not a surprise given how frequently he reiterated his opposition to large elements of the bill. But Democrats allowed the delusions of their own popularity to guide them after taking control of Congress and the White House.

In November 2020, President Joe Biden won the presidency in an election that was closer than the final Electoral College count indicated. Democrats held on to the House of Representatives but lost seats en route to a narrow majority. When they pulled off the upset in the Georgia Senate runoffs, they took a 50-50 majority in the upper chamber by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris being the tiebreaker.