With much of the Super Tuesday states called, here are a few thoughts on the Democratic presidential primary results.
Clinton Accelerates
When the night began, Clinton was already 23 percent of her way to clinching the nomination. Only four states had voted, but she had enormous strength thanks to Democratic superdelegates.
With help from the hundreds of delegates she won Tuesday, Clinton is now 37 percent of the way to the nomination. If she won every non-superdelegate going forward, Clinton would clinch the nomination on April 19, the day her home state of New York votes. Assuming she gets a boost from superdelegates, she’ll win even sooner than that.
If you want to play the expectations game, however, Clinton probably underperformed slightly on Tuesday. She was expected to rout Sanders in many states, and she did, but she suffered losses in states where polling was weak. Winning seven out of 11 states isn’t bad, but it’s probably not what she hoped for when the day began.
A Few Sanders Surprises
Sanders managed to exceed expectations Tuesday, but those expectations were quite low. He needed to show he could win outside New England, and so he did, winning in Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma. Every state Sanders won Tuesday was by double-digits. Sanders should have won Massachusetts too, but he at least ran a close race, coming within three percentage points of Clinton. His message is spreading past the Northeast, and the Clinton campaign should consider him a threat to win across the country (although the South remains steadfast Clinton country).
Regardless, Sanders can be glad he’s postponing the Clinton coronation. He still maintains good fundraising levels and will be able to campaign and spread his message for quite some time. He’s only 13 percent of his way toward clinching the nomination, and even if he gets close superdelegates could tip the contest in Clinton’s favor. Still, Sanders can celebrate the several states he was able to win Tuesday.
What’s next?
On Saturday, Democrats will vote in Kansas, Louisiana and Nebraska. Maine heads to the polls on Sunday. Between those four states, only one poll has been conducted in the past month — it showed Clinton ahead by 31 percentage points in Louisiana.
Conventional wisdom would have you believe Clinton will rout Sanders in those states. Tuesday showed that Sanders can surprise in states that aren’t heavily polled. Louisiana doesn’t seem like a place where he has a chance, but Sanders might do well in Kansas or Nebraska. Certainly he should do well in Maine, given how well he has done in New England.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
