Be cautiously optimistic that the United States and China will soon recommence trade negotiations. While China is feeling real economic pain, President Xi Jinping believes that President Trump desperately wants a deal, and that only encourages him to play hardball.

Still, Trump was optimistic in his comments on Monday. “China called last night,” Trump claimed, “said let’s get back to the table. So we’ll be getting back to the table.” China has been more circumspect for two reasons. First, Xi does not want to be seen as deferential to or cowed by Trump — this also matters in the context of tensions over Hong Kong. Second, that while Xi wants to end U.S. tariffs, he believes the 2020 U.S. elections mean Trump will cut a deal on pro-Chinese terms.