Four years ago, President Trump won Michigan by just 0.3%. It was a stunning win, since a Republican president had not won the state since 1988. Trump changed that, in part because Hillary Clinton was a horrible candidate, but also because Trump’s brand of populism appealed to a certain brand of Michigan voters still reeling from eight years of failed economic policy.

Trump’s strong economic record should have won him the state again. But he lost it by a little over 1% to Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. Why? Because he failed to win over the one group he needed most: suburbanites.