To Donald Trump’s boosters, the theory for how he could win the presidency hinged on the idea that he’d build on Mitt Romney’s performance among white voters, putting even blue states like Pennsylvania in play. But things aren’t quite working out that way.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University (which has tended to be favorable to Trump) finds that he is underperforming Romney among whites in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida — all three states that Romney lost.