Maybe it’s just statistical noise, but there’s been something of a turnaround in the generic vote polls.
The generic vote question, for those who are not political insiders, asks voters which party’s candidate they will vote for in elections for the House of Representatives. Over the last 20 years Republicans have tended to run a bit better in actual elections than they do in the generic vote question, but this tendency may have been reduced in recent cycles. In addition, Republicans have an advantage in House elections due to demographics and, to a lesser extent, redistricting. Democratic voters tend to be clustered in central cities, sympathetic suburbs and university towns. Republican voters tend to be spread around more evenly in the rest of the country.
