During Olympic season, people tune in to see how their nation stacks up against the rest of the world in competition. In 2012 and 2016, the United States was dominant, winning the overall medal count against second-place China. But in 2020, China has come on strong and is now outperforming FiveThirtyEight’s projections of how many medals the country would secure.

Winning on the balance beam is not the same as winning in the global balance of power. But in the last five years, two key things have reshaped American foreign policy and public opinion toward the idea that we are once again in an era of great-power competition: the Trump administration and COVID-19. The national security strategy outlined by the Trump administration clearly identified the rising influence of China as a threat to the U.S. deserving of primary focus, and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic raised the alarm for voters more broadly about China’s role in the world.