As things stand, I’m happy to say I was wrong about Olaf Scholz.
After entering office on Dec. 8 of last year, the German chancellor’s early actions did not suggest he would be a reliable U.S. ally. Scholz was hesitant to abandon the Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline, appeared committed to a weakened defense posture, and showed signs of appeasing Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to have changed all that.
Scholz has committed to meeting the 2%-of-GDP NATO defense spending target immediately. $113 billion will be allocated toward this goal, seeing German forces modernized and better equipped. Nord Stream 2 has been suspended, though with what permanence is yet unclear. And instead of sending helmets to Ukraine’s armed forces, a move that sparked widespread ridicule in the West, Germany is now arming Ukraine with anti-tank and man-portable anti-air missile systems. Scholz deserves immense credit for these actions. While Germans appear broadly supportive of his moves, powerful figures in the chancellor’s center-left SPD party will be deeply opposed to what he is doing.
Russia’s desecration of the post-Second World War international order and European democratic sovereignty has provoked other positive shifts. Normally defined by a lethargic and weak response to international aggression, the European Union has introduced major sanctions on Putin, oligarch supporters of the Russian president, and a wide range of Russian industries. This has imposed a major economic and, prospectively, political cost on Putin as his military struggles to make progress against Ukrainian forces.
It’s not just Europe. Middle Eastern powers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, governments with very close links to Russia, condemned the invasion in a recent United Nations General Assembly vote. Moscow likely put significant pressure on those nations to abstain from that vote.
Yet it’s not all good news.
India voted to abstain from that same U.N. vote, signifying its continued prioritization of Putin’s favor over its democratic values. The absurdity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s choice to put the world’s most populous democracy in the aggressor’s corner is striking. Moreover, it’s ultimately nonsensical: Moscow’s deepening partnership with India’s major northern adversary, China, testifies to Putin’s double-dealing.
One of America’s closest allies, Israel, has also adopted a cautious reaction to Russia’s invasion. While Israel’s stance is motivated by its desperation to ensure Russia’s cooperation on matters related to Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian missile activity in Syria, it is nevertheless concerning from a Western security perspective.
Still, Russia’s position remains fragile. As Putin escalates his use of force against Ukrainian civilians, it will become increasingly difficult for democratic nations to take a conciliatory diplomatic stance toward him.
