One extraordinary symbol of Donald Trump’s stunning victory in 2016 was his near miss in Minnesota. Democrats have carried this state in every presidential election since 1972. That means even Mike Dukakis and Walter Mondale won there. Former President Barack Obama had carried it by 8 and 10 points.

Since 1995, only one Republican has won a Senate race here, and that was because his opponent died. Democrats currently hold every statewide elected position in Minnesota. Yet Trump came within 1.5 percentage points of beating Hillary Clinton here in 2016. That was a 6.2-point swing to the GOP from 2012.