Many of us didn’t believe Donald Trump could win the presidency, because we didn’t think he could win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Yet Trump swung these states red in 2016, largely on the strength of outperforming among blue-collar workers. Trump, according to exit polls, got about 500,000 votes from union households in Michigan compared to Romney’s 430,000 4 years earlier. That difference is far greater than his 12,000-vote win in Michigan.