Mitt Romney has led Barack Obama in the Gallup national tracking poll for nearly three weeks.  He has led the Rasmussen national tracking poll for about the same time.  And now that the Washington Post and ABC News are publishing their own tracking poll, he’s leading in that one, too.  It seems reasonable to conclude that, at this moment in late October, Romney is leading the presidential race.

Those results have led to a lot of nervousness among Democrats and a number of reassuring analyses from party operatives and left-leaning journalists.  No matter what the national polls say, they argue, President Obama is still leading in those states that will lead to victory in the Electoral College.  Their hopes are focused on Ohio, where the RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Obama leading by 2.3 points.  The president also leads in New Hampshire by 1.4 points and Iowa by 2.3 points, while Romney leads in Florida by 1.8 points and Virginia and Colorado are tied, all in the RealClearPolitics averages.