The race for New York’s 23rd Congressional District certainly defied many pollsters. On Monday, I headlined a post here at Beltway Confidential “Conservative Hoffman takes dominant lead in New York 23,” citing a new poll showing Hoffman with a double-digit lead. Other surveys showed Hoffman ahead by smaller, but still significant, margins. The polls also suggested that momentum was trending Hoffman’s way.
But by Tuesday night, Hoffman was the loser. What happened? At the moment, we don’t as much information about the voters in New York 23 as we have from the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, so it’s hard to say with much confidence. But there are a number of questions to ask:
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