Americans shouldn’t have a hard time understanding that a few votes can make a big difference. After all, George W. Bush was elected thanks to a reported 537-vote margin in Florida in 2000. (Later newspaper investigations also found Bush ahead but by varying numbers, depending on how they counted the votes). In this presidential cycle, we have seen time and again that a very small number of votes have made a big difference in the course of the race. Let’s look at some examples, and consider the counterfactuals:

ŸIowa. Donald Trump beat Marco Rubio out for second place by just 2,201 votes out of 186,932 votes cast. Imagine that Rubio had come out ahead of Trump, thrusting him into third place. Would a lot of air gone out of the Trump balloon? Maybe, though remember that Hillary Clinton came back from third place in Iowa in 2008 to win New Hampshire.