There’s lot of bad news for the Democrats in the survey just released by Democracy Corps and Third Way, conducted by Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg’s firm. The numbers I’ll quote here are the results for likely voters and don’t include “dropoff voters,” who tend to be younger and significantly more Democratic. Republicans lead on the generic poll for the House by 47%-44% and even lead in party identification, including leaners, by 47%-46%. This is in line with the Real Clear Politics average on the generic vote which shows Republicans ahead 44%-43%; if you drop the AP/Ipsos poll, an outlier which shows Democrats ahead 50%-40%, you have Republicans ahead 45%-42%–pretty close, I suspect, to the historical high for Republicans on this question.
The Democracy Corps-Third way shows Barack Obama’s job approval at 47%-48%. By a 51%-41% margin likely voters think America’s standing in the world has gotten worse since Obama became president and by 47%-44% say that America is less safe from foreign threats than two years ago. Obama’s approval is a negative 42%-57% on the economy and 44%-51% on terrorist interrogation and prosecution of terrorist suspects: the treatment of the Christmas bomber seems to have made an impact. Republicans lead Democrats on the economy 44%-43%, keeping America safe 47%-34%, national security 50%-33%, ensuring a strong military 58%-27%, combating terrorism 47%-35% and the budget deficit 40%-37%. Other results are somewhat more favorable for Democrats, but overall this has to have been depressing reading for the analysts.
