Today seems to be the day that a lot of Republicans have become concerned about Ron Paul. Several negative articles about Paul have appeared in the last 24 hours, and more are sure to come.
A number of Republican insiders in Iowa are particularly concerned about Paul, especially since Paul now leads the Iowa race, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, with 21.7 percent to Mitt Romney’s 20.3 percent and Newt Gingrich’s 15.7 percent. Many Iowa Republicans are concerned that a Paul victory in the January 3 caucuses would discredit Iowa and reduce its influence in future GOP presidential races. (It’s a worry they’ve had for quite a while; see this report from the Ames straw poll back in August.)
The concerns in Iowa are real, if perhaps a little exaggerated. But what about the rest of the country? Are we in for a Ron Paul wave that engulfs the nation and leads the 76 year-old libertarian to the Republican nomination? Not a chance.
In New Hampshire, Paul is in third place with 16.5 percent, behind Romney, with 33.8 percent, and Gingrich, with 20.8 percent, according to the RCP average. Other than Iowa, New Hampshire is Paul’s best early state — and he has half the support of the frontrunner.
South Carolina is not Ron Paul country. In the Palmetto State, Paul is a distant third, with eight percent, to Gingrich’s 38.5 percent and Romney’s 20.8 percent.
Florida, the biggest prize in the early GOP voting, isn’t Paul territory, either. There is no RCP average for Florida, but in a recent NBC/Marist poll, Paul was a distant third, with eight percent, behind Gingrich’s 44 percent and Romney’s 29 percent. A recent Quinnipiac poll also showed Paul with eight percent, to Gingrich’s 35 percent and Romney’s 22 percent.
There’s no systematic state-by-state polling of the GOP race after Florida’s January 31 primary. But looking at a few polls of key states: In Ohio, a Quinnipiac poll taken as Herman Cain’s candidacy was collapsing showed Paul with seven percent of the vote, to Gingrich’s 36 percent and Romney’s 18 percent. A Quinnipiac survey of Pennsylvania at the same time also showed Paul with seven percent, to Gingrich’s 31 percent, Romney’s 17 percent, and Rick Santorum’s 17 percent.
In the latest RCP national average, Paul is at 12 percent — 17 points behind leader Newt Gingrich and 13 points behind Mitt Romney.
Paul has plenty of money to stay in the Republican race for a long time. But there’s no evidence he is a threat to win, or to finish second, or anything better than a distant third. It’s fine to subject him to new scrutiny, but Paul’s position as a major player is unlikely to last beyond Iowa.
