India will likely escape the middle-income trap

The South Asian nation of India is a rising economic superpower. With a little luck, it will become a wealthy country by August 2047, the 100th anniversary of its independence.

India’s growth record over the past 20-plus years is impressive. On average, since 2003, the economy has expanded by over 7% each year. If the country can maintain that growth rate for the next 20 years, India will reach the threshold to be considered a high-income country, with a per capita GDP of over $15,000 in 2025 U.S. dollars. The data suggest that India can sustain a long-term growth rate of 7% and avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” that has prevented countries such as Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey from becoming economically wealthy.