Today, the media is focusing on new polls suggesting a Newt Gingrich surge in the Republican nomination fight. Yet another interesting aspect of the polls is that they also show Republican voters are still stubbornly resisting a Mitt Romney nomination.
Over the past several weeks, most political observers have come to see Romney as a near-lock for the GOP nomination. The chance of his winning is now pegged at 69 percent on Intrade and a National Journal poll among insiders found near-unanimous agreement that he’d be the nominee. To be clear, I agree with the conventional wisdom and would be surprised if anybody else were the nominee.
Recommended Stories
Yet it’s worth noting that even with the increasing sense that Romney is inevitable, Republican voters are reluctant to rally around him. What we’re seeing now is part of the pattern we’ve seen for months — when one candidate falters, his or her support goes to somebody other than Romney. This happened as Rep. Michele Bachmann’s support went to Rick Perry, Perry’s support went Herman Cain and now as we have evidence of Cain’s support going to Gingrich.
One new poll, from CBS, finds Cain still on top, but declining to 18 percent support, from 25 percent in late October. Though Gingrich gained five points to reach 15 percent in the poll, Romney actually lost support — dropping from 21 percent to 15 percent.
Another Marist/McClatchy poll had Perry crashing to 8 percent, from 30 percent in the September survey. Yet while Gingrich surged from 6 percent to 19 percent during that period, Romney remained virtually the same — inching up just a point to 23 percent.
All the obvious caveats apply — these are national polls, whereas early state polls are what matter, and there’s still plenty of time for people to get behind Romney. But the continued resistance should be of at least some concern to establishment Republicans. Anti-Obama sentiment may go a long way in energizing the GOP base, but a lack of enthusiasm for the nominee could remain a problem.
