After writing my Wednesday Examiner column on the white working class vote, I thought it would be interesting to look back at the 2008 exit poll and see how white noncollege voters performed in the presidential election. I was inspired also by this interview with Andrew Gelman, a political scientist who argues that low income people vote pretty much the same across the country, while high income voters vote very differently. He’s right about the latter point, but the former point requires some serious qualification. Yes, low income people in the Northeast, South, Midwest and West may vote pretty much the same. But that’s because a large percentage of them are black or, in some cases, Hispanic in most states. White noncollege voters vote very differently in the different regions. And it’s in states with very low black percentages where they tend to vote most Democratic.
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