Are Hispanic voters trending to Donald Trump? It seems unlikely, but there’s at least a little polling evidence that that’s been happening over the past week.
The evidence comes from the Los Angeles Times/USC poll, and so should be taken with a grain of salt. As Nate Cohn reported October 12 in the New York Time Upshot blog, the LAT/USC poll employs a weighting procedure that applies different weights to respondents in dozens of different and, in some cases, very small subgroups. That can result in the idiosyncratic responses of one individual tilting the total poll results in an almost certainly misleading fashion. Thus, one 19-year-old black male in Illinois who supported Donald Trump raised Trump’s overall percentage in the total line by a full 1 percent.
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