Polls measure how people respond to questions asked them over the phone. Caucus results will be different, for many reasons. Some candidates will do better than their poll numbers. Some will do worse. We can’t know in advance, but we can make educated guesses. Here’s my prediction:
Overperformers:
- Santorum: Santorum is the pre-eminent anti-Romney at the moment. When conservative caucusgoers who dislike Mitt show up tonight, in many caucus rooms, they’ll see three major groups: Paul, Romney, and Santorum. If they are undecided, or not fully wedded to their preferred candidate, many of them will jump on the biggest non-Mitt, non-Paul train, which is Santorum. I think Santorum could do a full 10 points better than his 18.6 percent RCP average.
- Romney: Romney will probably slightly overperform his 22.8 percent RCP average, thanks to his superior organization, and the fact that many Republicans will simply resign themselves to backing the guy who has the best chance of beating Obama.
Par Players:
- Ron Paul: There are reasons Paul could overperform in Iowa. Collectively, call them the Huckabee Effect (1) Paul’s supporters are energetic (2) Paul’s supporters operate within some pre-existing institutions, such as the Campaign for Liberty. There are also reasons Paul could underperform. Call them the Dean Effect: (1) he is relying on young voters, who are famously unreliable, (2) he is relying on Democrats and Independents to show up for an evening with a bunch of Republicans and actually change their party registration, (3) backing Paul publicly takes some courage, considering his foreign policy stands that are unpopular with most GOP voters. I think the Huckabee and Dean effects neutralize each other.
- Perry: Perry also has offsetting factors: He’ll lose some support to Santorum, but he also has the best organization of the second-tier candidates.
Underperfomers:
- Gingrich: He’s still holding onto some of the anti-Romney vote. I think he loses a few points to Santorum there.
- Bachmann: Same as Gingrich, her backers will go to Santorum as the strongest pro-life, Christian conservative — Santorum.
