If Rick Santorum does beat Mitt Romney in Michigan tonight, it will not because Republicans picked him as the true conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. It will be because Democrats, for whatever reason, turned out to push Santorum over the top.

Everyone polling Michigan is reporting that the race is tightening in the final days. Romney’s aggregate advantage is down to 1.5 points in RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Public Policy Polling explains the movement in their poll, which actually shows Santorum edging out Romney 38 percent to 37 percent:

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