Every four years, political pundits draw up fantasy scenarios about how there could be a contested convention. No doubt, much of this is fueled by the fact that most working journalists are not old enough to have experienced a real convention fight, and if 15,000 members of the media are going to travel to a city in the middle of the summer, they’d like to dream of covering something other than a four-day infomercial. But there are several reasons to believe that this time could be different, and that Democrats are looking at the real possibility of a contested convention in 2020.

In 2020, Democrats are dealing with several factors, including the size and composition of their field, the delegate allocation rules, and the voting procedures for choosing a nominee, that all increase the likelihood of a contested convention.